Examining Disease Prevention Measures within Heterogeneous Communities and Studying Effect of Migration and lockdowns

Table Of Contents:

Introduction

Link to the Presentation for the project

Our Agent based model consists of

• In our model agents move randomly

• Each agent can either be

  • Susceptible (Blue Dots in Visualization)

  • Infected (Red Dots)

  • Removed/Recovered (Green Dots)

• Each infected agent can infect the susceptible neighbours if there exists an S-I link in the corresponding graph within a proximity radius.

!!The Following Simulations go along with the pdf linked above to the presentation!!

The effective Ring spread

In the initial Model, we let the agents perform a 2D random walk across the city (Assumed to be in a rectangular plane for Simplicity) The agents infect using well defined rules around themselves.

We witness a ring structure propogating across the city as we can see in the simulation below :

the structure was also shown in the lectures pointing to this wonderful Science article

The fact that we get such a structure from our simple model gave us a hint that we were in right direction.

Effect of migration in City A,B and C

Then we studied the effect of Migration across the cities. In the next simulation we sampled 4 cities and initially had one agent infected in each city, we randomly choose a fixed number of people from the city and allow them to migrate from one city to another. The following simulations are the result We can see:

• Faster spreading

• More hotspots appeaing across the city (not just one where the infection started)

• The infection Quickly covers the whole city

So we witnessed a seeding process of infection that lead to faster and deadlier spread of the disease.

We create a quarantine Center outside the city and send the infected individuls that are tested positive to the center.

• We make a quarantine center outside the city so that we can send the infected patients that are reported to the centers.

• We define a quarantine threshold as the number of days an infected individual is reported

• Also define a quarantine Rate that is the ratio of infected individuals that are reported and thus send to quarantine.

The following shows the simulation result